A “super” El Niño could be in the cards for Canada, but what does that mean for the country, as well as Vancouver? Should we expect extreme weather? Heatwaves? We cover everything you need to know about the potential El Niño this year.
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El Niño
The U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its monthly ENSO update that an “El Niño is likely to emerge soon and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.” Notably, it has an 82% chance in May to July 2026, and a 96% chance in December 2026 to February 2027.
Currently, we’re under an El Niño watch, although “there is substantial uncertainty in the peak strength” of it. There are no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance, according to NOAA.
“The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”
What About Vancouver?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac notes that North America will see “hotter-than-normal temperatures.”
Stating that: “Summer is expected to trend warmer than normal across much of the country, including southern Quebec, the Prairies, and southern British Columbia. Northern regions—including Yukon and the Northwest Territories—are also likely to see above-average warmth, while parts of southern Ontario are likely to see more mixed temperature patterns,” says the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
However, scientists say that Canada— and by extension, Vancouver— isn’t expected to experience drastic temperatures this summer. While a strong El Niño will have global impacts, Canada won’t have record breaking heat. You can expect a fairly standard summer, although it will definitely be a warm one.
