If you ask anyone in B.C. how the weather has been, they’ll probably tell you it’s like summer has come early. It’s been an unseasonably warm spring recently, with the sun shining as if it’s already June or July. The next few months are going to be much of the same, if the predictions are correct.
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Spring and Summer Forecast for B.C.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has just dropped its probabilistic forecast for the next three months in Canada. The forecast tracks the probability of temperatures being above, below, or near normal for a period of time. In this case, it’s from May to July 2026.
“The Canadian seasonal prediction system is an ensemble prediction system whose objective is to forecast the evolution of meteorological trend over the next seasons,” the ECCC explains.
Looking at the map, it appears that B.C. will have a fairly hot spring and summer. The probability of temperatures being above normal is practically 100%. There are only a few pockets of the province having a slightly lower chance of that happening.
The other maps tell a similar story. For the near-normal predictions, B.C. is basically completely blank, meaning that we definitely won’t be having a regular summer. And then for the below normal map, there’s extremely little chance of that happening.
One of the Hottest Years on Record
ECCC’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis is reportedly “forecasting a global mean surface temperature in 2026 of 1.44 ± 0.09 °C above pre-industrial levels.” This means that 2026 is going to be in the same temperature range as 2023 and 2025, which were the second and third hottest years on record to date.
“On average, Canada is warming at more than twice the global rate, with Northern regions warming about three times as quickly,” says ECCC. “These rising temperatures have been accompanied by increasingly extreme heat waves attributed to climate change.”
Get ready for a real scorcher of a summer this year.
