Vancouver voters have now been presented with two very different pictures of the city’s mayoral race.
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A new Research Co. poll places Mayor Ken Sim comfortably ahead of his challengers and shows ABC Vancouver remaining competitive at the council level. However, it follows an earlier survey that had Green candidate Pete Fry in first place and Sim facing significant voter dissatisfaction.
The contrasting results are a reminder that Vancouver’s October election remains wide open, with a large share of voters still undecided.
Ken Sim leads among likely voters
The latest Research Co. survey places Sim first with 22% support among all likely voters.
Kareem Allam of the Vancouver Liberals and Pete Fry of the Green Party are tied for second at 14%, followed by Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver at 10%.
Rebecca Bligh of Vote Vancouver received 5%, William Azaroff of OneCity Vancouver had 4%, and Stephanie Allen of the Coalition of Progressive Electors had 3%. Another 2% selected someone else.
Most importantly, 26% of likely voters remain undecided.
Once undecided voters are removed, Sim’s advantage becomes more noticeable. The ABC candidate rises to 30%, while Allam and Fry remain tied at 19%. Hardwick follows at 14%.
With at least eight candidates dividing the vote, the next mayor of Vancouver may not need anything close to majority support. Research Co. president Mario Canseco suggested that roughly one-third of the vote could be enough to win the crowded race.
ABC and Greens remains competitive at council
When likely voters were asked whether they would definitely or probably consider voting for candidates from each party, the Greens finished first at 42%. ABC was close behind at 40%, placing the two parties within the poll’s margin of error.
TEAM and the Vancouver Liberals followed at 35% each, while OneCity received 34%, Vote Vancouver had 32%, and COPE finished at 26%.
The question allowed voters to consider candidates from more than one party, so the results are not a direct prediction of how Vancouver’s 10 council seats will be divided. However, they suggest ABC remains firmly in contention despite losing several elected members during its first term.
Meanwhile, 42% of respondents held a positive opinion of ABC as a party. That trailed the Greens at 51%, the Vancouver Liberals at 48%, and OneCity at 44%.
An earlier poll had Pete Fry leading
The results are notably different from a Pallas Data poll released on July 30.
That survey placed Fry first with 18% support, followed by Sim at 14%, Allam at 12%, and Hardwick at 11%. Another 34% of voters were undecided.
It also found that 28% of respondents approved of Sim’s performance as mayor, while 48% disapproved.
ABC placed fourth in the Pallas council question with 10%, behind the Greens at 13%, the Vancouver Liberals at 12%, and COPE at 11%. That poll was commissioned by the Conservative Electors Association.
Why are the polls so different?
The surveys were conducted using different methods and definitions of the electorate.
Research Co. surveyed 401 likely municipal voters online between July 30 and August 1. Its results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Pallas surveyed 312 Vancouver residents eligible to vote between July 20 and 24 using automated telephone interviews. Its margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
The firms also asked their council questions differently. Research Co. asked whether voters would consider candidates from each party, while Pallas asked respondents to choose which party’s council candidates they would support.
Those differences can affect the results, particularly in a fragmented race with relatively small samples and more than one-quarter of voters still undecided.
The race is far from settled
The latest poll is undeniably good news for Sim and ABC. It shows the mayor leading every challenger, with ABC essentially tied for first when voters are asked which parties they would consider for council.
However, the Pallas results and Sim’s softer favourability numbers suggest ABC cannot treat that lead as secure.
Both surveys agree on one major point: a large group of Vancouver voters has not made a final decision. With election day scheduled for October 17, that undecided vote will likely determine whether ABC keeps control of City Hall or Vancouver moves in a different direction.
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