Vancouver is no stranger to seismic activity, but recent earthquakes have once again reminded residents of a terrifying reality—“The Big One” is coming. Scientists agree that a massive earthquake is inevitable, but what does that actually mean for the city?
While it is not possible to predict the exact timing or magnitude of the earthquake Vancouver will ultimately experience, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) estimates there to be a one in-five chance of a very strong earthquake in the next fifty years. How bad will it be? And more importantly—are we ready?
Recent Earthquakes Shake Vancouver
Over the past few weeks, Vancouver has felt the ground tremble twice, a not-so-gentle nudge from Mother Nature that our region sits in an active earthquake zone.
- February 21, 2025 – A 4.7-magnitude earthquake struck north of Sechelt, BC, rattling windows across Metro Vancouver.
- March 3, 2025 – Another 4.1-magnitude earthquake hit east of Sidney, BC, reminding everyone that the ground beneath us isn’t as stable as it seems. These quakes weren’t devastating, but they served as a preview of what could come next—a much larger and far more destructive event.
What Happens When “The Big One” Hits?
Seismologists warn that a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake is not just possible—it’s overdue. This mega-quake would likely originate from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a fault line that runs from Vancouver Island down to California.
A new report published in November 2024 by the City of Vancouver and Natural Resources Canada outlines what Vancouver could face:
- Thousands of buildings damaged or destroyed. A city report estimates that over 6,100 buildings could suffer severe damage, particularly in older neighbourhoods like Kitsilano, Mount Pleasant, and the Downtown Eastside.
- Widespread power outages. Expect collapsed power lines, ruptured gas mains, and a city plunged into darkness.
- Bridges and roads heavily impacted. The Cambie, Granville, and Burrard bridges could suffer serious structural damage, cutting off key access points.
- A financial nightmare. The estimated economic loss is up to $17 billion, with years of recovery ahead.
And that’s just on land. If “The Big One” triggers an underwater landslide, a report from UBC shows that a tsunami could add another layer of destruction, especially for low-lying areas like Richmond and Delta.
Neighbourhoods at the Highest Risk
While no part of the city will be spared, some areas will be hit harder than others. Older neighbourhoods with aging infrastructure and areas built on softer soils are at higher risk of severe damage. The highest concentration of risk amongst al neighbourhoods is found in the West End, the Downtown Eastside (including Chinatown, Strathcona), Downtown, Kitsilano, Fairview, and Mount Pleasant.
These six highest-risk neighbourhoods collectively contribute 65% of citywide seismic risk while containing the city and region’s two largest employment districts and over two-thirds of the city’s purpose-built market rental units in the city’s densest residential neighbourhoods.
- West End & Yaletown – Many older high-rises and converted warehouses lack modern seismic reinforcement.
- Downtown Eastside – Some of the oldest buildings in the city, many of which are already in poor condition.
- Kitsilano & Fairview – A mix of heritage homes and mid-century buildings that may not be earthquake-proof.
- Mount Pleasant – One of Vancouver’s fastest-growing areas, but some structures may not meet the latest seismic standards.
- Richmond & Delta – Built on soft, sediment-heavy ground, making them highly vulnerable to soil liquefaction, which can cause buildings to sink or collapse.
Are We Ready?
Short answer? Not really. While Vancouver has made efforts to earthquake-proof newer buildings, many older structures remain vulnerable. Retrofitting costs are high, and the city’s emergency response plans would be severely tested in a disaster of this scale. shows how you can prepare yourself and you
Nobody likes to think about disaster, but a BC Gov Report updated in March 2025 shows how you can stay ahead of the shake:
✔ Build an emergency kit. Include water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, batteries, and first aid supplies. (Earthquakes Canada Preparedness Guide)
✔ Secure heavy furniture. Bookshelves, TVs, and cabinets should be anchored to walls.
✔ Know your exit routes. Have a plan for how to safely leave your home, school, or workplace.
✔ Sign up for alerts. Keep an eye on Earthquakes Canada for real-time updates.
“The Big One” is a matter of when, not if. The recent earthquakes were just a warning shot—a reminder that Vancouver is living on borrowed time. While the potential destruction is daunting, being informed and prepared can make all the difference. Because when the ground starts shaking for real, you don’t want to be caught off guard.
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